Here's when machines will take your job, as predicted by A.I. gurus

An MIT study predicts when artificial intelligence will take over for humans in different occupations.

 Paul Ratner
04 June, 2017
MIT study predicts when AI will take over human jobs.
Photo credit: YOSHIKAZU TSUNO / AFP / Getty Images

While technology develops at exponential speed, transforming how we go about our everyday tasks and extending our lives, it also offers much to worry about. In particular, many top minds think that automation will cost humans their employment, with up to 47% of all jobs gone in the next 25 years. And chances are, this number could be even higher and the massive job loss will come earlier.

So when will your job become obsolete? Researchers at the University of Oxford surveyed the world's best artificial intelligence experts to find out when exactly machines will be better at humans in various occupations.

Katja Grace from Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute led the team that gathered responses from 352 academics and industry experts in machine learning. Then they calculated the median responses to come up with some concrete numbers.

In the next 10 years, we should have A.I. do better than humans in translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school-level essays (by 2026), writing top 40 songs (by 2028) and driving trucks. And while the consensus may be that driving trucks may come by 2027, it's easy to predict that this could happen even sooner, with top tech entrepreneurs like Elon Musk constantly pushing the envelope and promising these innovations earlier.

A chore that would take less time - folding laundry should be a breeze for A.I. by 2022. Other tasks might take longer, but still within the foreseeable future. It's likely you'll be around for these. We should get A.I.-driven machines in retail by 2031. By 2049, A.I. should be writing New York Times bestsellers and performing surgeries by 2053.

Overall, A.I. shoud be better than humans at pretty much everything in about 45 years.

Here's the full chart:

As MIT Technology Review points out, these predictions have a way of coming earlier. A.I. wasn't supposed to beat humans at the game of Go until 2027 and that happened back in 2015. In fact, it took Google's DeepMind just two years to come up with the necessary tech, instead of the 12 that was predicted.

On the other hand, as 40 years is an average person's working life, predictions that extend past that might be unreliable as they are based on technology in which the experts might not have enough practical knowledge.

Interestingly, there is a difference in how experts from different parts of the world view the future. Asian researchers put the A.I. takeover in just 30 years, while their North American counterparts see that happening in about 74 years. Full automation of labor is expected in under 125 years.

You can check out Grace's paper here.

AI automation artificial intelligence jobs employment occupations how long prediction future futurism MIT study

Iron Age discoveries uncovered outside London, including a ‘murder’ victim

A man's skeleton, found facedown with his hands bound, was unearthed near an ancient ceremonial circle during a high speed rail excavation project.

Photo Credit: HS2
Culture & Religion
  • A skeleton representing a man who was tossed face down into a ditch nearly 2,500 years ago with his hands bound in front of his hips was dug up during an excavation outside of London.
  • The discovery was made during a high speed rail project that has been a bonanza for archaeology, as the area is home to more than 60 ancient sites along the planned route.
  • An ornate grave of a high status individual from the Roman period and an ancient ceremonial circle were also discovered during the excavations.
Keep reading Show less
ancient world europe Death history violence archaeology

Skepticism: Why critical thinking makes you smarter

Being skeptical isn't just about being contrarian. It's about asking the right questions of ourselves and others to gain understanding.

Videos
  • It's not always easy to tell the difference between objective truth and what we believe to be true. Separating facts from opinions, according to skeptic Michael Shermer, theoretical physicist Lawrence Krauss, and others, requires research, self-reflection, and time.
  • Recognizing your own biases and those of others, avoiding echo chambers, actively seeking out opposing voices, and asking smart, testable questions are a few of the ways that skepticism can be a useful tool for learning and growth.
  • As Derren Brown points out, being "skeptical of skepticism" can also lead to interesting revelations and teach us new things about ourselves and our psychology.
Keep reading Show less
brain cognitive science critical thinking learning mind personal growth

New study suggests placebo might be as powerful as psychedelics

New study suggests the placebo effect can be as powerful as microdosing LSD.

Credit: agsandrew / Adobe Stock
Mind & Brain
  • New research from Imperial College London investigated the psychological effects of microdosing LSD in 191 volunteers.
  • While microdosers experienced beneficial mental health effects, the placebo group performed statistically similar to those who took LSD.
  • Researchers believe the expectation of a trip could produce some of the same sensations as actually ingesting psychedelics.
Keep reading Show less
anxiety depression mental health mindfulness Addiction psychology
Quantcast