Thoughts on the Future from Ray Kurzweil
Inventor, entrepreneur, author of best-selling book The Singularity is Near, and futurist Ray Kurzweil recently spoke to TIME magazine about his predictions for humanity’s future.
1) Computers are becoming cheaper, smaller and more powerful. Computers will become a billion times more powerful per dollar and a hundred thousand times smaller over the next 25 years. Just notice how computers in our phones are more powerful than computers the size of rooms used to be a few decades ago. This trend will continue giving information technology tremendous potential to connect us to each other, and streamline every aspect of our lives.
2) We’ll be online all the time. We’ll be constantly connected to each other and to the Internet.
3) We’ll reprogram our bodies. As biological tools and computer power becomes cheaper and faster, we’ll be able to manipulate our genes and make our bodies stronger and healthier. For example, switching off a fat receptor gene in our cells will make it possible for us to eat as much as we want without hoarding the fat and calories (this has already been achieved in animal testing).
4) Computers will become as intelligent as humans in 20 years. Because computers can be replicated at far faster rates than humans, we can expect profound change at the time when billions of computers acquire human intelligence (this point is the Singularity).
5) We will be able to reverse aging. We should prepare our bodies for the day when biotechnology can reprogram our bodies to live much longer (which will happen within 15-20 years) and eventually to reverse aging altogether with the help of nanotechnology.
6) We will be able to “upload” our brains. We’ll be able to fully upload our brains and move it to the Internet or to any other body, biological or mechanical. This means we will be able to forever retain our memories and ‘soul’.
Kurzweil is a great popularizer of the potential for technology. He has been accused of being utopian, but to be fair, he always points out the importance of having controls, which will harness unbridled technology. Also, while his timelines are optimistic, the content of his projections are not unreasonable. When exactly his predications will occur and how society will react to them is uncertain. The Hybrid Reality Institute studies the social and economic implications of some of the technology drivers Kurzweil discusses.
In particular, we found interesting his answer to the question of how we’ll feel about God as technology progresses:
“I believe our civilization is going to be vastly more intelligent and more spiritual in the decades ahead. You can argue how we got here, but we are the species that goes beyond our limitations. We didn't stay on the ground. We didn't stay on the planet. Our species always transcends.”
We agree that humans will become more spiritual as technology pervades our lives, mainly to come to grips with the plethora of choices and challenges that technology will bring with it. This is an important area that needs to be studied in order to give people guidance on how to lead a balanced life in a techno-infused era.
Ayesha and Parag Khanna explore human-technology co-evolution and its implications for society, business and politics at The Hybrid Reality Institute.
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Researchers hope the technology will further our understanding of the brain, but lawmakers may not be ready for the ethical challenges.
- Researchers at the Yale School of Medicine successfully restored some functions to pig brains that had been dead for hours.
- They hope the technology will advance our understanding of the brain, potentially developing new treatments for debilitating diseases and disorders.
- The research raises many ethical questions and puts to the test our current understanding of death.
The image of an undead brain coming back to live again is the stuff of science fiction. Not just any science fiction, specifically B-grade sci fi. What instantly springs to mind is the black-and-white horrors of films like Fiend Without a Face. Bad acting. Plastic monstrosities. Visible strings. And a spinal cord that, for some reason, is also a tentacle?
But like any good science fiction, it's only a matter of time before some manner of it seeps into our reality. This week's Nature published the findings of researchers who managed to restore function to pigs' brains that were clinically dead. At least, what we once thought of as dead.
What's dead may never die, it seems
The researchers did not hail from House Greyjoy — "What is dead may never die" — but came largely from the Yale School of Medicine. They connected 32 pig brains to a system called BrainEx. BrainEx is an artificial perfusion system — that is, a system that takes over the functions normally regulated by the organ. The pigs had been killed four hours earlier at a U.S. Department of Agriculture slaughterhouse; their brains completely removed from the skulls.
BrainEx pumped an experiment solution into the brain that essentially mimic blood flow. It brought oxygen and nutrients to the tissues, giving brain cells the resources to begin many normal functions. The cells began consuming and metabolizing sugars. The brains' immune systems kicked in. Neuron samples could carry an electrical signal. Some brain cells even responded to drugs.
The researchers have managed to keep some brains alive for up to 36 hours, and currently do not know if BrainEx can have sustained the brains longer. "It is conceivable we are just preventing the inevitable, and the brain won't be able to recover," said Nenad Sestan, Yale neuroscientist and the lead researcher.
As a control, other brains received either a fake solution or no solution at all. None revived brain activity and deteriorated as normal.
The researchers hope the technology can enhance our ability to study the brain and its cellular functions. One of the main avenues of such studies would be brain disorders and diseases. This could point the way to developing new of treatments for the likes of brain injuries, Alzheimer's, Huntington's, and neurodegenerative conditions.
"This is an extraordinary and very promising breakthrough for neuroscience. It immediately offers a much better model for studying the human brain, which is extraordinarily important, given the vast amount of human suffering from diseases of the mind [and] brain," Nita Farahany, the bioethicists at the Duke University School of Law who wrote the study's commentary, told National Geographic.
An ethical gray matter
Before anyone gets an Island of Dr. Moreau vibe, it's worth noting that the brains did not approach neural activity anywhere near consciousness.
The BrainEx solution contained chemicals that prevented neurons from firing. To be extra cautious, the researchers also monitored the brains for any such activity and were prepared to administer an anesthetic should they have seen signs of consciousness.
Even so, the research signals a massive debate to come regarding medical ethics and our definition of death.
Most countries define death, clinically speaking, as the irreversible loss of brain or circulatory function. This definition was already at odds with some folk- and value-centric understandings, but where do we go if it becomes possible to reverse clinical death with artificial perfusion?
"This is wild," Jonathan Moreno, a bioethicist at the University of Pennsylvania, told the New York Times. "If ever there was an issue that merited big public deliberation on the ethics of science and medicine, this is one."
One possible consequence involves organ donations. Some European countries require emergency responders to use a process that preserves organs when they cannot resuscitate a person. They continue to pump blood throughout the body, but use a "thoracic aortic occlusion balloon" to prevent that blood from reaching the brain.
The system is already controversial because it raises concerns about what caused the patient's death. But what happens when brain death becomes readily reversible? Stuart Younger, a bioethicist at Case Western Reserve University, told Nature that if BrainEx were to become widely available, it could shrink the pool of eligible donors.
"There's a potential conflict here between the interests of potential donors — who might not even be donors — and people who are waiting for organs," he said.
It will be a while before such experiments go anywhere near human subjects. A more immediate ethical question relates to how such experiments harm animal subjects.
Ethical review boards evaluate research protocols and can reject any that causes undue pain, suffering, or distress. Since dead animals feel no pain, suffer no trauma, they are typically approved as subjects. But how do such boards make a judgement regarding the suffering of a "cellularly active" brain? The distress of a partially alive brain?
The dilemma is unprecedented.
Setting new boundaries
Another science fiction story that comes to mind when discussing this story is, of course, Frankenstein. As Farahany told National Geographic: "It is definitely has [sic] a good science-fiction element to it, and it is restoring cellular function where we previously thought impossible. But to have Frankenstein, you need some degree of consciousness, some 'there' there. [The researchers] did not recover any form of consciousness in this study, and it is still unclear if we ever could. But we are one step closer to that possibility."
She's right. The researchers undertook their research for the betterment of humanity, and we may one day reap some unimaginable medical benefits from it. The ethical questions, however, remain as unsettling as the stories they remind us of.
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