Next Round Begins in Full

The government has launched a massive campaign against the Huthis. Heavy fighting is reported, in the latest round of this debilitating, years-long struggle, in which neither side seems capable of acheiving victory. The government reports that rebels seized schools in the north, dismissing teachers and students, and has used them as stages from which to fight.

Very quickly, this new round makes sense from the Huthi standpoint- the government is tottering and distracted; the dyke is bursting and it is running out of fingers. Salih, I think, is going to have to gamble that a massive offensive can at least knock the rebels off their feet. Obviously, if the campaign in waged like it has been, it will further alienate the population. But if I had to bet, I would say that the goal here is to temporarily destroy their capacity to fight and, in following tradition, kick the issue down the road to a more propitious time for solving it.

Needless to say, your good buddies here at Waq al-Waq will be tracking this. I have inside information that Greg has the scoop here, which he will be more than happy to share at en equally propitious time. So enjoy my theory before it is shot down.