Economist Predicts Recession Will End in 2nd Quarter of 2010

Big Think recently approached five leading international economists for their best predictions on when we will be out of the mess known as our national economy. Watch for their commentary in the Big Think blog in the coming days. And after you get hear their ideas, you can let the countdown begin.

Our second prediction is from Professor Miles Kimball of the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor. Luckily one of Professor Kimball's specialties is the economics of uncertainty. Does anyone actually teach the economics of certainty anymore?


So, Professor Kimball, when will the recession end?

"The Federal Reserve has enough tools to get the economy out of the recession. But there is about a 9 month lag before the effects of monetary policy kick in, and the Fed has not yet done enough. Within 6 months, I expect the Fed to have done enough monetary stimulus to get things moving 9 months after that--in about the second quarter of 2010."

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