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The Future of Furniture is Paper and Tape
What is the future of furniture? Paper and tape. At least that's the solution coming from Bulgarian designer Petar Zaharinov, whose latest line of furniture is made entirely and solely of these two components.
What is the future of furniture? Paper and tape. At least that is the solution coming from Bulgarian designer Petar Zaharinov, whose latest line of furniture is made entirely and solely of these two components. Having always been inspired by puzzles and “things that seem impossible”, he introduces a simple way of attaching planes together with duct tape in a chess pattern, which allows him to create sturdy, foldable tables, desks, chairs, book shelves, beds, and even storage bins.
“I wanted to provoke those who think that the only possible future is super high-tech, with artificial intelligence and wi-fi built in everything. I think this will be only one part of it. The other will be extreme simplicity and customization. I don’t think that people will stop using massive furniture, but for the modern person who travels a lot and changes their location every few years, this may be a great solution.”
The idea for TapeFlips came to Petar during his preparation for an international design competition exploring the topic of “Anti-fragility”. After reading Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Petar was intrigued by the question how to create furniture that didn’t suffer from the passage of time.
“According to Taleb, we are living in an age that is constantly changing and increasingly hard to predict, so we need to build our lives and our businesses in a way that they gain from that change instead of lose from it. I realized that in order for the entire system to not be fragile, its components needed to be. I used this concept for TapeFlips. I wanted to build a system of furniture where each of the components can be easily transformed, repaired, customized, and adapted. Even the materials needed to be very basic like tape and cardboard.”
The result is creative, innovative, and practical. TapeFlips can adapt easily - rearranging the parts gives you new setups, allows you to adjust dimensions (for example, the height of a desk or chair), and save space. The paper panels are light, waterproof, and the owner can easily print patterns on them. The tape behaves as hinges and ensures a 360 angle of rotation. As for durability, Zaharinov says that a chair, for example, has been tested to hold up to 100 kilos, but as tape is crucial for durability, his team plans to develop their own brand to ensure the quality of each piece.
Currently, TapeFlips biggest fans are environmentally conscious people and organizations, parents, and event organizers. The cardboard is recycled and recyclable. Building the furniture itself is a fun and bonding activity for parents and their kids, and the pieces are light and safe. They are also easy to carry, mobile and versatile, making them perfect for transforming event spaces and store windows.
For now, Petar’s plan is to continue testing the furniture with clients and build a community around the TapeFlips concept. The next stage will be finding an investor in order to begin mass production.
Photos: TapeFlips
How tiny bioelectronic implants may someday replace pharmaceutical drugs
Scientists are using bioelectronic medicine to treat inflammatory diseases, an approach that capitalizes on the ancient "hardwiring" of the nervous system.
24 February, 2021
Left: The vagus nerve, the body's longest cranial nerve. Right: Vagus nerve stimulation implant by SetPoint Medical.
Credit: Adobe Stock / SetPoint Medical
Sponsored by Northwell Health
- Bioelectronic medicine is an emerging field that focuses on manipulating the nervous system to treat diseases.
- Clinical studies show that using electronic devices to stimulate the vagus nerve is effective at treating inflammatory diseases like rheumatoid arthritis.
- Although it's not yet approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, vagus nerve stimulation may also prove effective at treating other diseases like cancer, diabetes and depression.
<p>Could a tiny electronic device treat some diseases more safely and effectively than pharmaceutical medicines?</p><p>For Kelly Owens, the answer was clear. She spent more than a decade suffering from Crohn's disease, a chronic inflammatory bowel disease that left her with severe arthritis in her joints. The pain forced her to use a cane, sometimes a wheelchair. She tried more than 20 medications and racked up more than $1 million in medical bills, but her condition didn't improve.</p><p>A physician told Owens and her husband that they shouldn't have children, and that she'd have to take steroids for life.</p><p>Then Owens turned to bioelectronic medicine. She reached out to Dr. Kevin Tracey, a pioneer in the field and president and CEO of the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research in New York. Soon after, Owens and her husband moved to Amsterdam to participate in a clinical trial involving a relatively new bioelectronic approach to treat inflammation.</p><p>Doctors implanted a small electronic device in her chest that stimulated her vagus nerve, the body's longest cranial nerve. After two weeks, Owens didn't need the cane or wheelchair. Soon she was jogging on a treadmill.</p><p>A growing body of research within bioelectronic medicine shows it's possible to treat diseases by manipulating the nervous system. The field is essentially a fusion of neuroscience, molecular biology and neurotechnology. Dr. Tracey and his colleagues think the field may someday replace or supplement many pharmaceutical drugs used to treat major diseases, including cancer and Alzheimer's.</p><p>But how? The answer centers on how the nervous system controls molecular processes in the body.</p>
<blockquote>...the most revolutionary aspect of bioelectronic medicine, according to Dr. Tracey, is that approaches like vagus nerve stimulation wouldn't come with harmful and potentially deadly side effects, as many pharmaceutical drugs currently do.</blockquote>
The nervous system’s ancient reflexes
<p>You accidentally place your hand on a hot stove. Almost instantaneously, your hand withdraws.</p><p>What triggered your hand to move? The answer is <em>not</em> that you consciously decided the stove was hot and you should move your hand. Rather, it was a reflex: Skin receptors on your hand sent nerve impulses to the spinal cord, which ultimately sent back motor neurons that caused your hand to move away. This all occurred before your "conscious brain" realized what happened.</p><p>Similarly, the nervous system has reflexes that protect individual cells in the body.</p><p>"The nervous system evolved because we need to respond to stimuli in the environment," said Dr. Tracey. "Neural signals don't come from the brain down first. Instead, when something happens in the environment, our peripheral nervous system senses it and sends a signal to the central nervous system, which comprises the brain and spinal cord. And then the nervous system responds to correct the problem."</p><p>So, what if scientists could "hack" into the nervous system, manipulating the electrical activity in the nervous system to control molecular processes and produce desirable outcomes? That's the chief goal of bioelectronic medicine.</p><p>"There are billions of neurons in the body that interact with almost every cell in the body, and at each of those nerve endings, molecular signals control molecular mechanisms that can be defined and mapped, and potentially put under control," Dr. Tracey said in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJH9KsMKi5M" target="_blank">TED Talk</a>.</p><p>"Many of these mechanisms are also involved in important diseases, like cancer, Alzheimer's, diabetes, hypertension and shock. It's very plausible that finding neural signals to control those mechanisms will hold promises for devices replacing some of today's medication for those diseases."</p><p>How can scientists hack the nervous system? For years, researchers in the field of bioelectronic medicine have zeroed in on the longest cranial nerve in the body: the vagus nerve.</p><blockquote>What's more, clinical trials show that vagus nerve stimulation not only "shuts off" inflammation, but also triggers the production of cells that promote healing.</blockquote>
The vagus nerve
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTYyOTM5OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NTIwNzk0NX0.UCy-3UNpomb3DQZMhyOw_SQG4ThwACXW_rMnc9mLAe8/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C0%2C0%2C0&height=700" id="09add" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="f38dbfbbfe470ad85a3b023dd5083557" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />Electrical signals, seen here in a synapse, travel along the vagus nerve to trigger an inflammatory response.
Credit: Adobe Stock via solvod
<p>The vagus nerve ("vagus" meaning "wandering" in Latin) comprises two nerve branches that stretch from the brainstem down to the chest and abdomen, where nerve fibers connect to organs. Electrical signals constantly travel up and down the vagus nerve, facilitating communication between the brain and other parts of the body.</p><p>One aspect of this back-and-forth communication is inflammation. When the immune system detects injury or attack, it automatically triggers an inflammatory response, which helps heal injuries and fend off invaders. But when not deployed properly, inflammation can become excessive, exacerbating the original problem and potentially contributing to diseases.</p><p>In 2002, Dr. Tracey and his colleagues discovered that the nervous system plays a key role in monitoring and modifying inflammation. This occurs through a process called the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature01321" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inflammatory reflex</a>. In simple terms, it works like this: When the nervous system detects inflammatory stimuli, it reflexively (and subconsciously) deploys electrical signals through the vagus nerve that trigger anti-inflammatory molecular processes.</p><p>In rodent experiments, Dr. Tracey and his colleagues observed that electrical signals traveling through the vagus nerve control TNF, a protein that, in excess, causes inflammation. These electrical signals travel through the vagus nerve to the spleen. There, electrical signals are converted to chemical signals, triggering a molecular process that ultimately makes TNF, which exacerbates conditions like rheumatoid arthritis.</p><p>The incredible chain reaction of the inflammatory reflex was observed by Dr. Tracey and his colleagues in greater detail through rodent experiments. When inflammatory stimuli are detected, the nervous system sends electrical signals that travel through the vagus nerve to the spleen. There, the electrical signals are converted to chemical signals, which trigger the spleen to create a white blood cell called a T cell, which then creates a neurotransmitter called acetylcholine. The acetylcholine interacts with macrophages, which are a specific type of white blood cell that creates TNF, a protein that, in excess, causes inflammation. At that point, the acetylcholine triggers the macrophages to stop overproducing TNF – or inflammation.</p><p>Experiments showed that when a specific part of the body is inflamed, specific fibers within the vagus nerve start firing. Dr. Tracey and his colleagues were able to map these relationships. More importantly, they were able to stimulate specific parts of the vagus nerve to "shut off" inflammation.</p><p>What's more, clinical trials show that vagus nerve stimulation not only "shuts off" inflammation, but also triggers the production of cells that promote healing.</p><p>"In animal experiments, we understand how this works," Dr. Tracey said. "And now we have clinical trials showing that the human response is what's predicted by the lab experiments. Many scientific thresholds have been crossed in the clinic and the lab. We're literally at the point of regulatory steps and stages, and then marketing and distribution before this idea takes off."<br></p>The future of bioelectronic medicine
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTYxMDYxMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNjQwOTExNH0.uBY1TnEs_kv9Dal7zmA_i9L7T0wnIuf9gGtdRXcNNxo/img.jpg?width=980" id="8b5b2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c005e615e5f23c2817483862354d2cc4" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="2000" data-height="1125" />Vagus nerve stimulation can already treat Crohn's disease and other inflammatory diseases. In the future, it may also be used to treat cancer, diabetes, and depression.
Credit: Adobe Stock via Maridav
<p>Vagus nerve stimulation is currently awaiting approval by the US Food and Drug Administration, but so far, it's proven safe and effective in clinical trials on humans. Dr. Tracey said vagus nerve stimulation could become a common treatment for a wide range of diseases, including cancer, Alzheimer's, diabetes, hypertension, shock, depression and diabetes.</p><p>"To the extent that inflammation is the problem in the disease, then stopping inflammation or suppressing the inflammation with vagus nerve stimulation or bioelectronic approaches will be beneficial and therapeutic," he said.</p><p>Receiving vagus nerve stimulation would require having an electronic device, about the size of lima bean, surgically implanted in your neck during a 30-minute procedure. A couple of weeks later, you'd visit, say, your rheumatologist, who would activate the device and determine the right dosage. The stimulation would take a few minutes each day, and it'd likely be unnoticeable.</p><p>But the most revolutionary aspect of bioelectronic medicine, according to Dr. Tracey, is that approaches like vagus nerve stimulation wouldn't come with harmful and potentially deadly side effects, as many pharmaceutical drugs currently do.</p><p>"A device on a nerve is not going to have systemic side effects on the body like taking a steroid does," Dr. Tracey said. "It's a powerful concept that, frankly, scientists are quite accepting of—it's actually quite amazing. But the idea of adopting this into practice is going to take another 10 or 20 years, because it's hard for physicians, who've spent their lives writing prescriptions for pills or injections, that a computer chip can replace the drug."</p><p>But patients could also play a role in advancing bioelectronic medicine.</p><p>"There's a huge demand in this patient cohort for something better than they're taking now," Dr. Tracey said. "Patients don't want to take a drug with a black-box warning, costs $100,000 a year and works half the time."</p><p>Michael Dowling, president and CEO of Northwell Health, elaborated:</p><p>"Why would patients pursue a drug regimen when they could opt for a few electronic pulses? Is it possible that treatments like this, pulses through electronic devices, could replace some drugs in the coming years as preferred treatments? Tracey believes it is, and that is perhaps why the pharmaceutical industry closely follows his work."</p><p>Over the long term, bioelectronic approaches are unlikely to completely replace pharmaceutical drugs, but they could replace many, or at least be used as supplemental treatments.</p><p>Dr. Tracey is optimistic about the future of the field.</p><p>"It's going to spawn a huge new industry that will rival the pharmaceutical industry in the next 50 years," he said. "This is no longer just a startup industry. [...] It's going to be very interesting to see the explosive growth that's going to occur."</p>
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"Forced empathy" is a powerful negotiation tool. Here's how to do it.
Master negotiator Chris Voss breaks down how to get what you want during negotiations.
15 July, 2020
Credit: Paul Craft / Shutterstock
Personal Growth
- Former FBI negotiator Chris Voss explains how forced empathy is a powerful negotiating tactic.
- The key is starting a sentence with "What" or "How," causing the other person to look at the situation through your eyes.
- What appears to signal weakness is turned into a strength when using this tactic.
<p>How am I supposed to do that?</p><p>There's a lot wrapped up in that seemingly simple question. First off, it's an admission of ignorance—it invites further explanation. Questions often hold more power than declarations. </p><p>More importantly, it provokes what <a href="https://www.blackswanltd.com/our-team/chris-voss" target="_blank">Chris Voss</a> calls "forced empathy." Voss's resume includes a stint as the lead international kidnapping negotiator for the FB1 and 14 years in the New York City Joint Terrorist Task Force. He knows how to have a conversation in difficult situations.</p><p>Voss now <a href="https://bigthink.com/videos/chris-voss-on-how-to-gain-the-upper-hand-in-negotiations" target="_blank">teaches negotiation skills</a> to business leaders as the CEO and founder of the Black Swan Group. Whether chatting with terrorists or corporate heads, his main tactic is similar: Make the other person empathize with you. </p><p>His seven-word question accomplishes this. What seems to be an admission of uncertainty or weakness is actually a show of strength. In jujitsu, sometimes being on your back is an advantage; in business, the same rule applies. Chris Voss explains in an interview with Big Think:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"You conveyed to them you have a problem. It's something that we also referred to as <em>forced empathy</em>. One of the reasons why we exercise tactical empathy is because we want the other side to see us fairly. We want them to see our position; we want them to see the issues we have; we want them to see the constraints that we have."</p>
<p>This question forces a response, and—this is the key—the other person has to consider your side of the argument. They have to look at the situation from your perspective if they hope to offer a solution.</p><p>Offering a real-world example, Voss mentions coaching a high-end real estate agent. They were leasing an expensive home in the Hollywood Hills. The first time the negotiators asked the "how" question, the leasing agent relented on a number of terms. A little while later, they asked again. This time, the agent said, "If you want the house you're going to have to do it," signaling that the end of negotiations had been reached. That kind of response tells you something useful: You've gotten as much as you can from the deal.</p><p>Voss says that "how" is not the only word that works. "What" is also a powerful entry into negotiations, such as "What am I supposed to do?" Again, you're forcing the other person to empathize. </p><p>This is a particularly tricky skill during a time when most conversations are online. Nuance is impossible without the immediacy of pantomimes and vocal fluctuations. Whataboutism is too easy an escape. This particular forced empathy tactic might be one that's best employed face-to-face or on the phone.</p>
Choose your battles
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQ1OTQ2NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNDgwMTA5OH0.BP2vZe7gZdiaE_KA5Otr4pzYmAqpFQUGSRSVr28Bipo/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C90%2C0%2C32&height=700" id="46a4d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="912a183929345986b45c3455a6f369f5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" alt="Aikido Morihei Ueshiba" data-width="1245" data-height="700" />Aikido Morihei Ueshiba (1883 - 1969, standing, centre left), founder of the Japanese martial art of aikido, demonstrating his art with a follower, at the opening ceremony of the newly-opened aikido headquarters, Hombu Dojo, in Shinjuku, Tokyo, 1967.
Credit: Keystone/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
<p>Online debates often amount to little more than frustrated individuals pulling out their hair. In his book, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/0062339346?tag=bigthink00-20&linkCode=ogi&th=1&psc=1" target="_blank">"Against Empathy,"</a> Yale psychology professor Paul Bloom writes that effective altruists are able to focus on what really matters in everyday life.</p><p>For example, he compares politics to sports. Rooting for your favorite team isn't based in rationality. If you're a Red Sox fan, Yankees stats don't matter. You just want to destroy them. This, he believes, is how most people treat politics. "They don't care about truth because, for them, it's not really about truth."</p><p>Bloom writes that if his son believed our ancestors rode dinosaurs, it would horrify him, but "I can't think of a view that matters less for everyday life." We have to strive for rationality when the stakes are high. When involved in real decision-making processes that will affect their life, people are better able to express ideas and make arguments, and are more receptive to opposing ideas. </p><p>Because we "become inured to problems that seem unrelenting," it's imperative to make the problem seem immediate. As Voss says, giving the other side "the illusion of control" is one way of accomplishing this, as it forces them to take action. When people feel out of control, negotiations are impossible. People dig their heels in and refuse to budge. </p><p>What seems to be weakness is actually a strength. To borrow another martial arts metaphor, negotiations are like aikido: using your opponent's force against them while also protecting them from injury. Forcing empathy is one way to accomplish this task. You may get more than you ask for without the other side ever realizing they surrendered anything.</p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://derekberes.substack.com/" target="_blank">Substack</a>. His next book is</em> "<em>Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy."</em></p>3 Tips on Negotiations, with FBI Negotiator Chris Voss
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b86d518e9f0c9f9d7a7c686e07798152"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-FLlBchonwM?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
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Toward a disease-sniffing device that rivals a dog’s nose
Trained dogs can detect cancer and other diseases by smell. Could a device do the same?
25 February, 2021
JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images
Technology & Innovation
Numerous studies have shown that trained dogs can detect many kinds of disease — including lung, breast, ovarian, bladder, and prostate cancers, and possibly Covid-19 — simply through smell. In some cases, involving prostate cancer for example, the dogs had a 99 percent success rate in detecting the disease by sniffing patients' urine samples.
<p>But it takes time to train such dogs, and their availability and time is limited. Scientists have been hunting for ways of automating the amazing olfactory capabilities of the canine nose and brain, in a compact device. Now, a team of researchers at MIT and other institutions has come up with a system that can detect the chemical and microbial content of an air sample with even greater sensitivity than a dog's nose. They coupled this to a machine-learning process that can identify the distinctive characteristics of the disease-bearing samples.</p><p>The findings, which the researchers say could someday lead to an automated odor-detection system small enough to be incorporated into a cellphone, are being published today in the journal PLOS One, in a paper by Claire Guest of Medical Detection Dogs in the U.K., Research Scientist Andreas Mershin of MIT, and 18 others at Johns Hopkins University, the Prostate Cancer Foundation, and several other universities and organizations.</p><p> “Dogs, for now 15 years or so, have been shown to be the earliest, most accurate disease detectors for anything that we've ever tried," Mershin says. And their performance in controlled tests has in some cases exceeded that of the best current lab tests, he says. “So far, many different types of cancer have been detected earlier by dogs than any other technology."</p><p>What's more, the dogs apparently pick up connections that have so far eluded human researchers: When trained to respond to samples from patients with one type of cancer, some dogs have then identified several other types of cancer — even though the similarities between the samples weren't evident to humans.</p>
<p>These dogs can identify "cancers that don't have any identical biomolecular signatures in common, nothing in the odorants," Mershin says. Using powerful analytical tools including gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) and microbial profiling, "if you analyze the samples from, let's say, skin cancer and bladder cancer and breast cancer and lung cancer — all things that the dog has been shown to be able to detect — they have nothing in common." Yet the dog can somehow generalize from one kind of cancer to be able to identify the others.</p><p>Mershin and the team over the last few years have developed, and continued to improve on, a miniaturized detector system that incorporates mammalian olfactory receptors stabilized to act as sensors, whose data streams can be handled in real-time by a typical smartphone's capabilities. He envisions a day when every phone will have a scent detector built in, just as cameras are now ubiquitous in phones. Such detectors, equipped with advanced algorithms developed through machine learning, could potentially pick up early signs of disease far sooner than typical screening regimes, he says — and could even warn of smoke or a gas leak as well.</p><p>In the latest tests, the team tested 50 samples of urine from confirmed cases of prostate cancer and controls known to be free of the disease, using both dogs trained and handled by Medical Detection Dogs in the U.K. and the miniaturized detection system. They then applied a machine-learning program to tease out any similarities and differences between the samples that could help the sensor-based system to identify the disease. In testing the same samples, the artificial system was able to match the success rates of the dogs, with both methods scoring more than 70 percent.</p><p>The miniaturized detection system, Mershin says, is actually 200 times more sensitive than a dog's nose in terms of being able to detect and identify tiny traces of different molecules, as confirmed through controlled tests mandated by DARPA. But in terms of interpreting those molecules, "it's 100 percent dumber." That's where the machine learning comes in, to try to find the elusive patterns that dogs can infer from the scent, but humans haven't been able to grasp from a chemical analysis.</p>
<p>"The dogs don't know any chemistry," Mershin says. "They don't see a list of molecules appear in their head. When you smell a cup of coffee, you don't see a list of names and concentrations, you feel an integrated sensation. That sensation of scent character is what the dogs can mine."</p><p>While the physical apparatus for detecting and analyzing the molecules in air has been under development for several years, with much of the focus on reducing its size, until now the analysis was lacking. "We knew that the sensors are already better than what the dogs can do in terms of the limit of detection, but what we haven't shown before is that we can train an artificial intelligence to mimic the dogs," he says. "And now we've shown that we can do this. We've shown that what the dog does can be replicated to a certain extent."</p><p>This achievement, the researchers say, provides a solid framework for further research to develop the technology to a level suitable for clinical use. Mershin hopes to be able to test a far larger set of samples, perhaps 5,000, to pinpoint in greater detail the significant indicators of disease. But such testing doesn't come cheap: It costs about $1,000 per sample for clinically tested and certified samples of disease-carrying and disease-free urine to be collected, documented, shipped, and analyzed he says.</p><p>Reflecting on how he became involved in this research, Mershin recalled a study of bladder cancer detection, in which a dog kept misidentifying one member of the control group as being positive for the disease, even though he had been specifically selected based on hospital tests as being disease free. The patient, who knew about the dog's test, opted to have further tests, and a few months later was found to have the disease at a very early stage. "Even though it's just one case, I have to admit that did sway me," Mershin says.</p><p>The team included researchers at MIT, Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, Medical Detection Dogs in Milton Keynes, U.K., the Cambridge Polymer Group, the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the University of Texas at El Paso, Imagination Engines, and Harvard University. The research was supported by the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the National Cancer Institute, and the National Institutes of Health.</p><p>Reprinted with permission of <a target="_blank" href="http://news.mit.edu/">MIT News</a>. Read the <a target="_blank" href="https://news.mit.edu/2021/disease-detection-device-dogs-0217" rel="noopener noreferrer">original article</a>.</p>
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Scientists are building Earth’s virtual twin
Their goal is a digital model of the Earth that depicts climate change in all of its complexity.
25 February, 2021
Credit: Theis/Adobe Stock
Technology & Innovation
- The European Union envisions an ambitious digital twin of the Earth to simulate climate change.
- The project is a unique collaboration between Earth science and computer experts.
- The digital twin will allow policymakers to audition expansive geoengineering projects meant to address climate change.
<p>A number of massive geoengineering schemes have been proposed for dealing with climate change. These range from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48069663" target="_blank">brightening</a> the sun by pumping seawater spray up through ship masts to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/01/11/bill-gates-backed-climate-solution-gains-traction-but-concerns-linger/?sh=372bb11793b6" target="_blank">dimming it</a> by injecting calcium carbonate dust into the atmosphere. These ideas may or may not work, but they also may or may not backfire.</p><p>We can hardly afford to make things worse, and Earth is a big, interwoven set of complex systems. Wouldn't it be great if we had a sort of practice Earth on which we could try out such potentially high-impact solutions without risking additional harm to our planet?</p><p>We may soon have one, thanks to the European Union's new Destination Earth project. Climate scientists and computer experts are attempting to create Earth's digital twin: A virtual Earth that mirrors the real one closely enough that policymakers can audition planet-changing geoengineering proposals to see if they'll work before deploying them for real.</p><p>Their project is described in a study published in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-00986-y" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a>.</p>
Who are the planet-builders?
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDMzMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzOTA0NzY2MH0.yG8KyIXYBtiAQB0_9KJLPFhvOj2ZvpBy04YPffMIEJM/img.jpg?width=980" id="4548e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="61d5c1e9765e8d98ef2dab9cb2bf01a6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1440" data-height="833" />Credit: Henry & Co./Unsplash/leberus/Adobe Stock/Big Think
<p>Destination Earth is the brainchild of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the European Space Agency (ESA), and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).</p><p>The project manager and lead author of the study is <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/staff-profiles/peter-bauer" target="_blank">Peter Bauer</a> of the ECMWF. His contribution to the project has to do with the climate science aspects of Earth's virtual twin. The computer side of things will be the domain of <a href="https://htor.inf.ethz.ch" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Torsten Hoefler</a> of ETH Zurich and <a href="https://www.simonsfoundation.org/people/thomas-schulthess/" target="_blank">Thomas Schulthess</a> of the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS).</p>Watching time go by on the digital Earth
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDMzNi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNTIyNzQ5MX0.NrXxzMuA8NcrcSIaCivN3zRlsc-KgVpYiecDlLKN4Mw/img.jpg?width=980" id="b1bcf" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="aff8d7380cd18b8ee15a8f772d83a7a8" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1440" data-height="988" />Credit: Logan Armstrong/Unsplash
<p>The basic idea of the digital twin is that it will allow scientists to observe climate change in motion as it progresses. "If you are planning a two-meter high dike in The Netherlands, for example," says Bauer in an ETH press release, "I can run through the data in my digital twin and check whether the dike will in all likelihood still protect against expected extreme events in 2050."</p><p>Most important will be trying out geoengineering ideas and seeing how they track over time. The press release specifically notes the value the twin will bring to "strategic planning of fresh water and food supplies or wind farms and solar plants." </p>Aging models and AI
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTY5MDM0Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NjM3Njc3Mn0.7Dm8rcv_bcHSvKlxIvaQ3wu3pC3wjKbWeScQ_nQyLlA/img.jpg?width=980" id="be2db" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8dacb34d559e79cded0443dbd88c84d3" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1440" data-height="720" />Credit: ECMWF
<p>Capturing the subtleties and intricacies of our planet faithfully in order to model plauisble outcomes is going to require an equally complex computer model. Construction of the digital Earth begins with the refinement of current weather models, with a goal of eventually being able to simulate conditions in as small an area as a kilometer. Current models are not nearly as fine-grained, a shortcoming that hampers their ability to make accurate predictions given that the large weather systems are really aggregates of many smaller meteorological systems influencing each other.</p><p>The authors of the paper assert that today's meteorological models fall far short of what's possible, their development having basically become stuck in place about a decade ago. They say that current models take advantage of only about 5 percent of today's available processing power. The solution is the tight collaboration between Earth scientists and computer scientists at the heart of Destination Earth to develop cutting-edge models.</p><p>The twin will also be able to take advantage of rapidly advancing developments in artificial intelligence. Obviously, AI is very good at detecting patterns in large amounts of data. The study anticipates multiple roles for AI here, including the promotion of operational efficiency with new ways of accurately representing physical processes, as well as the development of novel data-compression strategies.</p>A massive endeavor
<p> The team will feed the twin massive amounts of weather data—as well as data regarding human activity—to get the digital planet going and then continually as new data emerge, making the model more and more complex and more and more accurate. </p><p> At full scale, a digital twin of an entire planet would require a suitably massive amount of horsepower. The authors of the study propose a system with 20,000 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphics_processing_unit" target="_blank">GPUs</a> that will require 20 megawatts to run. And since the ultimate goal is to help the Earth and not make things worse, they say they'd like to site its digital twin in an area power from a CO<sup>2</sup>-netural electrical source. </p>
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