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Harvard group: Here's how the U.S. economy can reopen by August
A bipartisan group of economists, technology and public health experts, and ethicists developed a three-part plan to swiftly and safely reopen the American economy. Could it work?
- The three key parts of the plan are testing, contact tracing, and supported isolation.
- The report calls for significantly increased COVID-19 testing, as well as the creation of a centralized Pandemic Testing Board with "strong but narrow powers."
- The plan would play out over four phases, the first of which involves stabilizing the essential workforce and prioritizing testing for these individuals.
The U.S. can reopen its economy by August 2020 — if it makes a massive investment in public health infrastructure and follows a three-part plan designed to put all Americans safely back to work.
That's the projection outlined in a new report titled "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience," authored by a bipartisan group of economists, technology and public health experts, and ethicists at Harvard University's Edmond J. Safra Center on Ethics. The report describes COVID-19 as a "profound threat" to American democracy, comparable to "the Great Depression and World War II."
"What we need to do is much bigger than most people realize," the report states. "We need to massively scale-up testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine—together with providing the resources to make these possible for all individuals."
The report estimates this plan will cost $50 to $300 billion over two years. This amount, the authors write, is "dwarfed by the economic cost of continued collective quarantine of $100 to 350 billion a month." What's more, the economic costs of reopening the economy too early or in an unsafe way are similarly massive, and doing so could mean having to keep the economy closed for even longer.
So, to reopen as safely and swiftly as possible, the report proposes three strategies: testing, tracing, and supported isolation — or TTSI.
Testing is the first and arguably most important step. Without it, we can't trace the movements of infected people to determine whom they've contacted, and we can't tell who needs to be isolated in self-quarantine.
"We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by early June to deliver a safe social reopening. This number will need to increase over time (ideally by late July) to 20 million a day to fully remobilize the economy."
As of April 22, about 151,000 Americans are being tested for COVID-19 per day. States are working to increase testing, but the process would be faster with more centralized coordination, Danielle Allen, director of the Edmond J. Safra Center on Ethics, told MSNBC.
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That's why the report calls on the federal government to create a Pandemic Testing Board "with strong but narrow powers that has the job of securing the testing supply and the infrastructure necessary for deployment of testing."
With widespread testing, health officials would be better able to trace the spread of the virus. One way to trace the virus is to manually contact those who might have been exposed. Another method is to create an opt-in, GPS-based smartphone app that alerts people if they recently came close to someone who tested positive for COVID-19, similar to the system that South Korea has used to corral the virus. (Understandably, this strategy comes with no shortage of privacy concerns.)
Of course, people who test positive still need to isolate themselves. To succeed on a large scale, the report calls for self-isolation to be supported "with job protections, resource support, and health care."
The report says these three strategies — TTSI — would help the U.S. reopen its economy over four phases:
- Stabilize essential sectors (prioritize testing for them)
- Expand essential workforce (retrain nonessential workers to supplement essential workers)
- End economic misery from collective stay-at-home orders
- Reopen most activity and stay open.
"Throughout all four phases, research and development of both therapeutics and vaccines should proceed aggressively with the goal of accelerating the transition to phase 4 and hopscotching over the intermediate phases," the report states.
If the report's projections are accurate, the U.S. economy could be fully and safely reopened by August. But even if the plan succeeds, it's unlikely that life will return to business as usual by that point — Americans would still probably be advised to wear masks in public spaces and avoid large gatherings.
The biggest roadblock for a plan like this, of course, is getting Congress or the Trump administration to support it. After all, doing things like ramping up COVID-19 testing will likely require the president to use the Defense Production Act of 1950, which authorizes a president to force private companies to accept and prioritize contracts for materials deemed necessary for national defense.
Allen likened these government-mobilization efforts to past U.S. economic recovery programs.
"You can think of it as a Marshall Plan. You can also think of it as Eisenhower's highway infrastructure, building all those great roads across the country," Allen told ABC News. "What we really need is for the federal government to set up a pandemic testing supply board that will coordinate the supply chain and achieve that massive ramp up as quickly as possible."
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Northwell Health is using insights from website traffic to forecast COVID-19 hospitalizations two weeks in the future.
- The machine-learning algorithm works by analyzing the online behavior of visitors to the Northwell Health website and comparing that data to future COVID-19 hospitalizations.
- The tool, which uses anonymized data, has so far predicted hospitalizations with an accuracy rate of 80 percent.
- Machine-learning tools are helping health-care professionals worldwide better constrain and treat COVID-19.
The value of forecasting<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTA0Njk2OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMzM2NDQzOH0.rid9regiDaKczCCKBsu7wrHkNQ64Vz_XcOEZIzAhzgM/img.jpg?width=980" id="2bb93" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="31345afbdf2bd408fd3e9f31520c445a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1546" data-height="1056" />
Northwell emergency departments use the dashboard to monitor in real time.
Credit: Northwell Health<p>One unique benefit of forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations is that it allows health systems to better prepare, manage and allocate resources. For example, if the tool forecasted a surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations in two weeks, Northwell Health could begin:</p><ul><li>Making space for an influx of patients</li><li>Moving personal protective equipment to where it's most needed</li><li>Strategically allocating staff during the predicted surge</li><li>Increasing the number of tests offered to asymptomatic patients</li></ul><p>The health-care field is increasingly using machine learning. It's already helping doctors develop <a href="https://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/early/2020/06/09/dc19-1870" target="_blank">personalized care plans for diabetes patients</a>, improving cancer screening techniques, and enabling mental health professionals to better predict which patients are at <a href="https://healthitanalytics.com/news/ehr-data-fuels-accurate-predictive-analytics-for-suicide-risk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">elevated risk of suicide</a>, to name a few applications.</p><p>Health systems around the world have already begun exploring how <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7315944/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">machine learning can help battle the pandemic</a>, including better COVID-19 screening, diagnosis, contact tracing, and drug and vaccine development.</p><p>Cruzen said these kinds of tools represent a shift in how health systems can tackle a wide variety of problems.</p><p>"Health care has always used the past to predict the future, but not in this mathematical way," Cruzen said. "I think [Northwell Health's new predictive tool] really is a great first example of how we should be attacking a lot of things as we go forward."</p>
Making machine-learning tools openly accessible<p>Northwell Health has made its predictive tool <a href="https://github.com/northwell-health/covid-web-data-predictor" target="_blank">available for free</a> to any health system that wishes to utilize it.</p><p>"COVID is everybody's problem, and I think developing tools that can be used to help others is sort of why people go into health care," Dr. Cruzen said. "It was really consistent with our mission."</p><p>Open collaboration is something the world's governments and health systems should be striving for during the pandemic, said Michael Dowling, Northwell Health's president and CEO.</p><p>"Whenever you develop anything and somebody else gets it, they improve it and they continue to make it better," Dowling said. "As a country, we lack data. I believe very, very strongly that we should have been and should be now working with other countries, including China, including the European Union, including England and others to figure out how to develop a health surveillance system so you can anticipate way in advance when these things are going to occur."</p><p>In all, Northwell Health has treated more than 112,000 COVID patients. During the pandemic, Dowling said he's seen an outpouring of goodwill, collaboration, and sacrifice from the community and the tens of thousands of staff who work across Northwell.</p><p>"COVID has changed our perspective on everything—and not just those of us in health care, because it has disrupted everybody's life," Dowling said. "It has demonstrated the value of community, how we help one another."</p>
"You dream about these kinds of moments when you're a kid," said lead paleontologist David Schmidt.
- The triceratops skull was first discovered in 2019, but was excavated over the summer of 2020.
- It was discovered in the South Dakota Badlands, an area where the Triceratops roamed some 66 million years ago.
- Studying dinosaurs helps scientists better understand the evolution of all life on Earth.
Credit: David Schmidt / Westminster College<p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We had to be really careful," Schmidt told St. Louis Public Radio. "We couldn't disturb anything at all, because at that point, it was under law enforcement investigation. They were telling us, 'Don't even make footprints,' and I was thinking, 'How are we supposed to do that?'"</p><p>Another difficulty was the mammoth size of the skull: about 7 feet long and more than 3,000 pounds. (For context, the largest triceratops skull ever unearthed was about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02724634.2010.483632" target="_blank">8.2 feet long</a>.) The skull of Schmidt's dinosaur was likely a <em>Triceratops prorsus, </em>one of two species of triceratops that roamed what's now North America about 66 million years ago.</p>
Credit: David Schmidt / Westminster College<p>The triceratops was an herbivore, but it was also a favorite meal of the T<em>yrannosaurus rex</em>. That probably explains why the Dakotas contain many scattered triceratops bone fragments, and, less commonly, complete bones and skulls. In summer 2019, for example, a separate team on a dig in North Dakota made <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/science/triceratops-skull-65-million-years-old.html" target="_blank">headlines</a> after unearthing a complete triceratops skull that measured five feet in length.</p><p>Michael Kjelland, a biology professor who participated in that excavation, said digging up the dinosaur was like completing a "multi-piece, 3-D jigsaw puzzle" that required "engineering that rivaled SpaceX," he jokingly told the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/science/triceratops-skull-65-million-years-old.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>.</p>
Morrison Formation in Colorado
James St. John via Flickr
|Credit: Nobu Tamura/Wikimedia Commons|
Archaeologists discover a cave painting of a wild pig that is now the world's oldest dated work of representational art.
- Archaeologists find a cave painting of a wild pig that is at least 45,500 years old.
- The painting is the earliest known work of representational art.
- The discovery was made in a remote valley on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.
Oldest Cave Art Found in Sulawesi<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a9734e306f0914bfdcbe79a1e317a7f0"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/b-wAYtBxn7E?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
The Persian polymath and philosopher of the Islamic Golden Age teaches us about self-awareness.