Managing Risk: How to Make Better Decisions
Before the autumn of 2008, what did Thanksgiving turkeys and rating agencies have in common? They assumed that stability was increasing, and then they were blindsided by Doomsday. Thanksgiving turkeys were used to being fed every day, and suddenly they were taken to the chopping block. Much like Wall Street. Rating agencies and top managers of major banks never saw the crash coming. Dodge the chopping block. Learn to tell the difference between stability and false stability.
In the latest installment of Big Think Edge, psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer explains how to analyze risk. The author of Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, Gigerenzer teaches this exclusive workshop, where he stresses understanding the critical difference between calculable risk and uncertainty.
“The problem here is that mathematical models that are made for a world of known risk, like probability theory, are applied to a world of uncertainty,” explains Gigerenzer. “And here one doesn’t know whether they work or not. But nevertheless the dream to calculate everything in advance is very strong.”
Learn the guiding principles for analyzing risk to make better decisions in a world of uncertainty. Sign up for a 14-day trial to Big Think Edge and receive free access to online study guides and video lectures from leading experts.
For more on Gigerenzer’s insights on managing risk, watch this clip from Big Think Edge:
The ability to speak clearly, succinctly, and powerfully is easier than you think
The ability to communicate effectively can make or break a person's assessment of your intelligence, competence, and authenticity.
The results come from a 15-year study that used ultrasound scans to track blood vessels in middle-aged adults starting in 2002.
- The study measured the stiffness of blood vessels in middle-aged patients over time.
- Stiff blood vessels can lead to the destruction of delicate blood vessels in the brain, which can contribute to cognitive decline.
- The scans could someday become a widely used tool to identify people at high risk of developing dementia and Alzheimer's.
What defines a dark horse? The all-important decision to pursue fulfillment and excellence.
When we first set the Dark Horse Project in motion, fulfillment was the last thing on our minds. We were hoping to uncover specific and possibly idiosyncratic study methods, learning techniques, and rehearsal regimes that dark horses used to attain excellence. Our training made us resistant to ambiguous variables that were difficult to quantify, and personal fulfillment seemed downright foggy. But our training also taught us never to ignore the evidence, no matter how much it violated our expectations.
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