Before the autumn of 2008, what did Thanksgiving turkeys and rating agencies have in common? They assumed that stability was increasing, and then they were blindsided by Doomsday. Thanksgiving turkeys were used to being fed every day, and suddenly they were taken to the chopping block. Much like Wall Street. Rating agencies and top managers of major banks never saw the crash coming. Dodge the chopping block. Learn to tell the difference between stability and false stability.
In the latest installment of Big Think Edge, psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer explains how to analyze risk. The author of Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions, Gigerenzer teaches this exclusive workshop, where he stresses understanding the critical difference between calculable risk and uncertainty.
“The problem here is that mathematical models that are made for a world of known risk, like probability theory, are applied to a world of uncertainty,” explains Gigerenzer. “And here one doesn’t know whether they work or not. But nevertheless the dream to calculate everything in advance is very strong.”
Learn the guiding principles for analyzing risk to make better decisions in a world of uncertainty. Sign up for a 14-day trial to Big Think Edge and receive free access to online study guides and video lectures from leading experts.
For more on Gigerenzer’s insights on managing risk, watch this clip from Big Think Edge:
Malcolm Gladwell teaches "Get over yourself and get to work" for Big Think Edge.
- Learn to recognize failure and know the big difference between panicking and choking.
- At Big Think Edge, Malcolm Gladwell teaches how to check your inner critic and get clear on what failure is.
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We take fewer mental pictures per second.
- Recent memories run in our brains like sped-up old movies.
- In childhood, we capture images in our memory much more quickly.
- The complexities of grownup neural pathways are no match for the direct routes of young brains.
It's not just a case of "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger."
- A new study suggests children who endure trauma grow up to be adults with more empathy than others.
- The effect is not universal, however. Only one kind of empathy was greatly effected.
- The study may lead to further investigations into how people cope with trauma and lead to new ways to help victims bounce back.
It's one of the most consistent patterns in the unviverse. What causes it?
- Spinning discs are everywhere – just look at our solar system, the rings of Saturn, and all the spiral galaxies in the universe.
- Spinning discs are the result of two things: The force of gravity and a phenomenon in physics called the conservation of angular momentum.
- Gravity brings matter together; the closer the matter gets, the more it accelerates – much like an ice skater who spins faster and faster the closer their arms get to their body. Then, this spinning cloud collapses due to up and down and diagonal collisions that cancel each other out until the only motion they have in common is the spin – and voila: A flat disc.
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