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- A former clandestine operative reveals a CIA method for reading an adversary's mind.
- Game theory exposes the two best tactics for winning a negotiation.
- If you're not a subscriber yet, join Big Think Edge today. Boost your analytical intelligence with our 7-day free trial.
This week, Big Think Edge is releasing three videos about getting inside the heads of people you need to understand better. Jamie Notter clears up what many people don't understand about millennials, Amaryllis Fox shares a great CIA technique for predicting an adversary's behavior, and Kevin Zollman puts you on top in negotiations.
Preparing for the millennial takeover: Understand the four trends that shaped a generation, with Jamie Notter
Maybe you're a millennial. Maybe you've been baffled by them. In either case, there's no denying the friction that often arises in the workplace between millennials and those who came before them. The insights of Jamie Notter, author of When Millennials Take Over, should resolve confusion and friction on all sides. Why are millennials the way they are? Notter's astute, eye-opening analysis of the world millennials know explains everything.
Available September 3 in Become a Better Manager
Win with red teaming: A case study in strategic empathy from inside the CIA, with Amaryllis Fox
To win in a conflict, it's imperative to see your adversary clearly. It's not always easy to do, especially when dealing with entrenched opposing mindsets, and in the 1980s the CIA developed "red teaming" to address this. Former clandestine CIA operative Amaryllis Fox explains how a "red cell" of CIA operatives were charged with getting inside the minds of Soviet leadership as deeply as possible, non-judgmentally assuming both their tactical and emotional perspectives. It proved to be an invaluable means of predicting their behavior. Stepping outside yourself to spend some time in an opponent's skin, explains Fox, is not only a great way to accomplish your goals — it's also a powerful personal-growth experience. Learn how to do it this week, at Big Think Edge.
"THE TRUTH IS, YOU ACTUALLY ARE FAR BETTER EQUIPPED TO GO AFTER THE PRAGMATIC, STRATEGIC WIN WHEN YOU KNOW HOW TO EXERCISE EMPATHY, AND CLIMB INTO THE PERSPECTIVE OF ANOTHER PERSON, PARTICULARLY YOUR ADVERSARY."
– AMARYLLIS FOX
Available September 4 in Boost Your Emotional Intelligence
The science of strategic thinking: Improve negotiation outcomes with 2 central principles from game theory, with Kevin Zollman
Game theorist and author of The Game Theorist's Guide to Parenting Kevin Zollman talks about how game theory tries to explain negotiations. It identifies simple principles that underlie what seems on the surface to be complex interaction. Two of these principles just happen to be the ones that typically determine whether you or the other person is going to win. Hint: They both involve positioning yourself to seem like the person who has the least to lose. Time to level-up your negotiating skills. Start your 7-day free trial of Big Think Edge to watch this lesson.
Available September 4 in Boost Your Analytical Intelligence
Big Think Edge releases Deep Dives!
This week marks a brand-new offering on the Big Think Edge platform: Deep Dives! Big Think Edge Deep Dives are four-step educational experiences that are made up of articles, videos, and activities. We'll be releasing three Deep Dives every week so there's more than ever to learn on Big Think Edge.
Our first three Deep Dives explain why Donald Trump, the "Disruptor in Chief", might be onto something when it comes to so-called dark emotional intelligence in negotiations; we look at how to welcome Gen Z into your strong intergenerational team; and you'll also learn how to use practical framework for making life's toughest decisions.
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Related Articles
Five collectibles with better returns than the stock market
People often make a killing in stocks, but what else do people buy in hopes of selling for a fortune?
January 22, 2021
Personal Growth
- Outside of stocks and bonds, some people make money investing in collectibles and make a fair amount on them.
- One stamp even sold for a billion times its face value.
- The extreme dependence on future collectability limits the potential of most of these opportunities.
<p> The question of how to make your money work for you is a never-ending problem. While stocks, bonds, and currencies of all kinds are common choices, they aren't the only things you can put your money into. Various collectibles, household objects, and clothing articles have made headlines for being sources of income for people who can predict which ones will end up being valuable years after purchase and reaping the profits.</p><p> While the word "investment" is a strong one, some people really do buy these items in hopes of reselling them for higher amounts later, much as you might do with stocks or bonds. So, let's look at five alternative investing options with occasionally eye-popping returns.</p>
Pokémon Cards
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hVUmTaSoB5Y" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> For those who weren't content to catch them all in a video game came a trading card game where you could collect them all. Some classic cards have gained tremendous stature among collectors and Pokéfanatics and sell for extremely high prices. </p><p> An older card featuring Charizard, a fire breathing dragon, regularly sells for thousands <a href="https://www.lifesuccessfully.com/gaming-articles/the-most-wanted-pokemon-cards-charizard#/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">online</a>. Given that the card could be purchased for a couple of dollars in 1999, this is quite the return. A particular pack of the cards, which cost $5 in 2003, now sells for $650, one hundred and thirty times the original asking <a href="https://adamrybko.medium.com/stocks-or-pokemon-cards-an-introduction-to-alternative-investing-32fe499083c4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">price</a>. </p><p> Of course, not every card will fetch these high prices. Buying cards as an investment is tricky. You have to essentially guess at which cards will be considered highly valuable at a later date and will be unable to collect any dividend before selling them.</p><p> Furthermore, you have to presume that people will be collecting the cards years after buying them. While Pokémon has remained popular, it is a bit of an outlier in terms of enduring success.</p>Shoes
<p> People from all walks of life, from skateboarders to the First Lady of the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/imelda-marcos-shoes-mixed-legacy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Philippines</a>, enjoy collecting shoes. An entire subculture exists for people interested in collecting sneakers, and some people make quite a profit in it.</p><p> The Nike SB Dunk Low Reese Forbes Denims, priced initially at $65 in 2002, are commonly valued in the thousands of dollars now. The Nike Air Jordan 1 Retro High x Off White "Chicago" shoe sold for $190 a mere four years ago, but now sells for $4000 a <a href="https://sixfiguresneakerhead.com/sneaker-model-return-alternative-investment-stock-x-reseller/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pair</a>. </p><p> A <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sneakers-good-investment_n_5bd1f5ebe4b0d38b588143ee?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALOu0F9zs5DBHHOIjMgHOZR6K88W3rZkyD3ftBMz2nzlHfoxD4MS2Iz1vF3H-a4_xzOWIIrsJyv76Gj6xwUXaRIRdjq7M2m7I6-lxihWIcEfs7F9PgOwnx82JXPfXmWL7-RQlNUufOyvd8V6TCzMEYrEjzMXVU77IWk9MjOEtsln" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Huffington Post</a> article points out that most of these shoes offered better returns than gold over the same period. The same article quotes YouTube personality <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/mrFOAMERSIMPSON" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mr. Foamer Simpson</a> and his explanation of the difficulties of making money on shoes:</p><p style="margin-left: 20px;"> "There's a guessing game or element of unpredictability that makes it exciting for some collectors. With sneakers, you kind of never know. Sure, you know what sneakers are more limited or which ones were harder to get, but even with that, it fluctuates a lot. A sneaker that was very valuable two years ago might all of a sudden crash and no longer be valuable."</p>Toys of all kinds
<iframe width="730" height="430" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0uYnj1i1EQw" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><p> If there's one thing everybody loves, it's what they loved when they were children. That often translates into old and rare toys fetching insane prices at auction.</p><p> Beanie Babies, those little stuffed animals from the 90s, once sold at a price of thousands of dollars <a href="https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/03/02/How-Great-Beanie-Baby-Bubble-Went-Bust" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">online</a>, not bad considering they sold for $5. Lego sets, particularly those featuring well-known franchises like Star Wars, can sell for hundreds of dollars <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/20-geeky-collectibles-could-millions-201624881.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">online</a>. </p><p> As with Pokémon cards, the success stories are dependent on what people are interested in collecting long after most people forgot the toy existed.<strong> </strong>While some collectors have ideas on how to gauge what might or might not end up being valuable later, there seems to be a considerable amount of luck involved.</p>Stamps
<p> The hobby of kings has occasionally made some people as rich as one, with rare stamps and extensive collections fetching high prices at auction.</p><p> One of the famous "Inverted Jenny," stamps, a rare misprint showing an upside-down airplane, sold for $1,593,000 at <a href="https://www.linns.com/news/us-stamps-postal-history/2018/november/nov-15-jenny-invert-sale-record.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">auction</a>. The most valuable stamp in the world, the British Guiana 1c magenta, last sold for $9,480,000, a billion times its face <a href="http://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/2014/magenta-n09154.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">value</a>. For those interested in a shorter-term investment, the USA Forever stamp has gained a face value of 75% since its introduction and can still be used to send a letter.</p>Coins
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTUxNjY2Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMjUwNzk3OX0.HMBXb1mbiL0D-JbFcD7pBWNZ8TcOB4mzcJ6ri2aCNOg/img.jpg?width=1245&coordinates=0%2C1%2C0%2C1&height=700" id="41fe2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="57f1ae74688caf29e150c4ce2f7c5b41" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="1245" data-height="700" /><p> For those who want to invest in actual money but without having it do money related things, collectible coins may be the ticket.</p><p> The misprinted Wisconsin State Quarter, featuring an extra leaf on an ear of corn, can sell for up to $2,800, though the price has declined in recent <a href="https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/2005-02-10-quarter-usat_x.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">years</a>. Older coins made of precious metals are also highly valued; a silver dollar from 1804 sold for nearly two million at <a href="https://coins.thefuntimesguide.com/rare_coin_prices/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">auction</a>. Even old wheat pennies can sell for a couple of dollars today. </p><p> While these collectibles can provide high returns on your investment in them, they don't provide dividends, and their value is entirely dependent on how much collectors are willing to pay for the particular item you have. As a couple of the above examples show, tastes can change and leave your investment worthless. If you have some luck, an eye for trends, and the good fortune not to have thrown out your old stuff, you might be able to make a fair amount on it. </p><p> Of course, if you manage to get rich because you found an old coin in your desk after reading this article, be sure to remember who wrote it. </p>
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NASA is destroying this iconic launcher platform (and no one wants the parts)
NASA is scrapping its Apollo-era launcher platform to make room for new infrastructure that will support upcoming Artemis missions.
January 22, 2021
NASA
Technology & Innovation
- NASA's Mobile Launcher Platform-2 supported the launches of historic Apollo missions, including two crewed missions to the Moon.
- The space agency is in the process of deconstructing the platform to make space for its new Space Launch System (SLS).
- NASA's Artemis program aims to launch three missions, including a crewed mission to the lunar surface in 2024.
<p>NASA plans to scrap its Mobile Launcher Platform-2 (MLP-2), the gigantic structure that helped launch more than 50 missions, including Apollo 12 and 14, and the tragic 1986 Challenger mission.</p>
<p>NASA is getting rid of the historic platform to make room for a newer mobile launcher that, unlike MLP-2, will be capable of supporting the agency's Artemis-era Space Launch System (SLS). </p>
<p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We're getting rid of MLP-2 now not because there were no customers [for its use]. We're getting rid of it because we're running out of parking places," Scott Tenhoff, project manager for MLP-2's demolition at Kennedy Space Center, told <a href="http://www.collectspace.com//news/news-011921a-mobile-launch-platform-2-demolition.html" target="_blank">collectSpace</a>. "That there's a contract out now to build Mobile Launcher-2, something had to go."</p>
<p>The agency tried seeing whether institutions like the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum were interested in preserving parts of MLP-2, which measures 25 feet high, 160 feet long and 135 feet wide, and weighs more than 8 million pounds when unloaded. But with no takers, NASA chose to scrap it to make room for the new infrastructure.</p>
<p style="margin-left: 20px;">"We ran out of parking spots, so that's why we chose to get rid of MLP-2," Tenhoff said.</p>
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="40b3bb260d0abb89fab3327b278e50e2"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rvdf_anh5sk?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>MLP-2 is one of three platforms constructed in the 1960s, the other being MLP-1 and MLP-3. NASA will use MLP-1 to condition the crawlerway, the road on which crawler-transporters carry platforms, rockets and spacecraft at a speed of 1 m.p.h. The crawlerway is <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/471742main_Countdown2008R.pdf" target="_blank">130 feet wide</a>, nearly the size of an eight-lane highway.</p><p>To ensure the crawlerway can handle massive weights for the upcoming Artemis 1 mission, NASA is loading its MLP-1 with concrete blocks that weigh as much as SLS and its umbilical launch tower.</p>
<div id="5e194" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a3db2b50abf8101c6895e3cd1cc4ecb2"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1346838386137391106" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A crawler and 2 mobile launcher platforms at the MSS park site at @NASAKennedy, Jan. 4. One CT and MLP are assistin… https://t.co/rao5GWB6eQ</div> — NASA's Exploration Ground Systems (@NASA's Exploration Ground Systems)<a href="https://twitter.com/NASAGroundSys/statuses/1346838386137391106">1609946268.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The agency plans to use MLP-1 for future crawlerway conditioning, and to store the MLP-3 in Kennedy Space Center. As for the MLP-2? Tenhoff said there's not much to salvage, given that the structure was built for the specific purpose of launching Apollo-era rockets.</p><p>Those launches included:</p><ul><li>1969—Apollo 9: The third crewed Apollo mission.</li><li>1969—Apollo 12: The second crewed mission to land on the Moon.</li><li>1971—Apollo 14: The third crewed mission to land on the Moon.</li><li>1973—Skylab: The first U.S. space station, launched aboard a modified Saturn V rocket.</li><li>1986—Challenger: A failed Space Shuttle mission which resulted in an explosion that killed all seven crew members.</li></ul>
A new era for NASA
<p>The Artemis program aims to land the first woman and the next man on the moon by 2024, and after that a voyage to Mars. While it's unclear whether President Joe Biden will change the timelines of the program, the overall goal is to establish a moon base from which astronauts can conduct long-term research and experiments. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"After 20 years of continuously living in low-Earth orbit, we're now ready for the next great challenge of space exploration — the development of a sustained presence on and around the moon," former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine <u><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-outlines-lunar-surface-sustainability-concept" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">said in a statement</a>.</u> "For years to come, Artemis will serve as our North Star as we continue to work toward even greater exploration of the moon, where we will demonstrate key elements needed for the first human mission to Mars."</p><p>In November 2021, NASA plans to launch Artemis 1, which will be the first flight using SLS and Orion. The mission aims to send the Orion spacecraft, uncrewed, to orbit the moon. In 2023, Artemis 2 aims to send a crewed mission to fly by the Moon, while Artemis 3 plans to put American astronauts on the lunar surface for the first time since 1972.</p>
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Photo: Alexey Protasov / Adobe Stock
Surprising Science
- Charles Darwin speculated that wingless insects thrived on windy islands so they wouldn't be blown off the land.
- While the reasoning was slightly faulty, researchers have now proved Darwin's 165-year-old "wind hypothesis."
- This finding is yet another example of how environments shape the animals that inhabit them.
<p>All animals adapt to their environment. Even humans, self-isolating animals that we are, are shaped by our surroundings. Every one of us is interdependent with the environment that we inhabit—it shapes us as much as we shape it. </p><p>While the Buddhist notion of interdependence dates back roughly 2,500 years, we didn't understand how profoundly the environment affects biology until Charles Darwin. Now one of his theories, long known as the "wind hypothesis," has been shown to be true. It only took 165 years to verify his observations. </p><p>To be fair, the wind isn't the <em>only</em> reason increasing numbers of insects no longer grow wings. But as a <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2020.2121" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new study</a>, published in <em>Proceedings of the Royal Society B</em>, shows, the wind is a major factor in this evolutionary decision. </p><p>Not that the world is about to be overrun with unwinged critters. Roughly 95 percent of the world's insect population <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccacoffey/2021/01/19/wind-creates-evolutionary-changes-in-flying-insects-depriving-them-of-their-wings/?sh=64fef1b42717" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">can fly</a>. After boating around coastal Morocco, Darwin noticed something odd on the island of Madeira: many local beetles (his personal passion) were wingless. He suggested flying beetles would have been blown off the island given the strong winds. He then speculated that apterous (un-winged) beetles were better suited for the environment. </p><p>The theory commenced with a bit of a bet between Darwin and his friend, geographical botanist Joseph Dalton Hooker, as <a href="https://scitechdaily.com/160-years-later-study-shows-charles-darwin-was-right-about-why-insects-are-losing-the-ability-to-fly/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">explained by</a> lead researcher, Rachel Leihy, a Ph.D. candidate at Monash University's School of Biological Sciences. </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"He and the famous botanist Joseph Hooker had a substantial argument about why this happens. Darwin's position was deceptively simple. If you fly, you get blown out to sea. Those left on land to produce the next generation are those most reluctant to fly, and eventually evolution does the rest. Voilà."</p>
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNTUxMjcyMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMzcxOTA4MH0.1pGw8j3rZQgi20yy6G14yZ2-7t62LLqAJ49b2Yx5pAc/img.jpg?width=980" id="e72db" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e189bbb212943a8e39a4ee71fb138083" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" data-width="5472" data-height="3648" />
Photo: Christian / Adobe Stock
<p>Monash researchers looked at three decades of data on various insect species living in Antarctica and 28 Southern Ocean islands—including Svalbard, Jan Mayen, Ellef Ringnes, Bathurst, and St. Matthew—and discovered a trend: wind (as well as low air pressure and freezing temperatures) made flight nearly impossible to resident insects. They simply didn't have the energetic resources needed to take to the sky. Better to crawl around and scavenge.</p><p>Darwin wasn't completely right. He thought the evolutionary adaptations were due purely to wind throwing insects off the island. But nutrition matters too. Flight consumes a ton of energy. The windier it is, the harder insects have to work. Battling a gale requires an inordinate amount of calories. As the team writes, </p><p style="margin-left: 20px;">"Strong winds can also inhibit normal insect flight activity, thereby increasing the energetic costs of flying or maintaining flight structures. This energy trade-off is more complex than Darwin's single-step displacement mechanism because it requires genetic linkage between traits associated with flight ability, flight propensity, and fecundity or survival." </p><p>Still, you have to hand it to the man. During a time when most humans assumed animals were all the result of metaphysical tinkering, Darwin gazed out into nature and connected the dots. His mind has inspired over a century-and-a-half of scientific progress as we continue to build on—and, as this study shows, prove—his theories. </p><p>Darwin knew that every animal is the product of its environment, and therefore must respect both its boons and its boundaries. Talk about a lesson we need today. Environments are known to become very hostile to foreign invaders when pushed too hard. Right now, we're courting disaster. Hopefully, we won't wait for evolution to ground our ambitions. </p><p>--</p><p><em>Stay in touch with Derek on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/derekberes" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DerekBeresdotcom" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Facebook</a>. His most recent book is</em> "<em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08KRVMP2M?pf_rd_r=MDJW43337675SZ0X00FH&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hero's Dose: The Case For Psychedelics in Ritual and Therapy</a>."</em></p>
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