Balance of probabilities Terrorism vs nature

Terrorism's potential is minute, against what nuture can throw at us. The Yellowstone Caldera is a supervolcano that could wipe out half of the USA's population.

The caldera is rising and the rate of that rise is increasing, the caldera is roughly due to go up again. Does that mean next month (probably not), next year or 50,000 years? Truth is I have no idea, but I think we need to find out.

The scientists working on this, are on a budget of hundreds of thousands spread over years. But on fighting terrorism the budget is many billions each year. If you count the wars, trillions each year.

Lake Tabo is an even bigger supervolcano, with a even smaller budget. The rising caldera is Samosir island.

The budget to study near earth objects is not enough, to track any more than the most likely problem asteroids. With so many people on earth the next major metior strike will almost certainly kill many people. Just last century there was Tunguska and one over western South America.

No expert is working full time on the Amery Ice field, yet this ice field is the plug to a big chunk of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet which by now is half the Ice on Earth. If Amey holds then low lying countries will probably be OK. If not, then countries like Holland are stuffed. There is some realy fascinating work that has been done. But so much more is needed.

It is easier to deamonise Muslims than work on problems that can realy change the world in most unpleasant ways. We could be in for some nasty shocks that could be ameliarated with prior knowledge

​There are two kinds of failure – but only one is honorable

Malcolm Gladwell teaches "Get over yourself and get to work" for Big Think Edge.

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  • At Big Think Edge, Malcolm Gladwell teaches how to check your inner critic and get clear on what failure is.
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Apple, Amazon, and Uber are moving in on health care. Will it help?

Big tech is making its opening moves into the health care scene, but its focus on tech-savvy millennials may miss the mark.

Apple COO Jeff Williams discusses Apple Watch Series 4 during an event on September 12, 2018, in Cupertino, California. The watch lets users take electrocardiogram readings. (Photo: NOAH BERGER/AFP/Getty Images)
Sponsored by Northwell Health
  • Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google have been busy investing in health care companies, developing new apps, and hiring health professionals for new business ventures.
  • Their current focus appears to be on tech-savvy millennials, but the bulk of health care expenditures goes to the elderly.
  • Big tech should look to integrating its most promising health care devise, the smartphone, more thoroughly into health care.
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Harvard: Men who can do 40 pushups have a 'significantly' lower risk of heart disease

Turns out pushups are more telling than treadmill tests when it comes to cardiovascular health.

Airman 1st Class Justin Baker completes another push-up during the First Sergeants' push-up a-thon June 28, 2011, Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska. Participants were allowed 10 minutes to do as many push-ups as they could during the fundraiser. Airman Baker, a contract specialist assigned to the 354th Contracting Squadron, completed 278 push-ups. (U.S. Air Force photo/Airman 1st Class Janine Thibault)
Surprising Science
  • Men who can perform 40 pushups in one minute are 96 percent less likely to have cardiovascular disease than those who do less than 10.
  • The Harvard study focused on over 1,100 firefighters with a median age of 39.
  • The exact results might not be applicable to men of other age groups or to women, researchers warn.
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The colossal problem with universal basic income

Here's why universal basic income will hurt the 99%, and make the 1% even richer.

  • Universal basic income is a band-aid solution that will not solve wealth inequality, says Rushkoff.
  • Funneling money to the 99% perpetuates their roles as consumers, pumping money straight back up to the 1% at the top of the pyramid.
  • Rushkoff suggests universal basic assets instead, so that the people at the bottom of the pyramid can own some means of production and participate in the profits of mega-rich companies.
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