Balance of probabilities Terrorism vs nature

Terrorism's potential is minute, against what nuture can throw at us. The Yellowstone Caldera is a supervolcano that could wipe out half of the USA's population.


The caldera is rising and the rate of that rise is increasing, the caldera is roughly due to go up again. Does that mean next month (probably not), next year or 50,000 years? Truth is I have no idea, but I think we need to find out.

The scientists working on this, are on a budget of hundreds of thousands spread over years. But on fighting terrorism the budget is many billions each year. If you count the wars, trillions each year.

Lake Tabo is an even bigger supervolcano, with a even smaller budget. The rising caldera is Samosir island.

The budget to study near earth objects is not enough, to track any more than the most likely problem asteroids. With so many people on earth the next major metior strike will almost certainly kill many people. Just last century there was Tunguska and one over western South America.

No expert is working full time on the Amery Ice field, yet this ice field is the plug to a big chunk of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet which by now is half the Ice on Earth. If Amey holds then low lying countries will probably be OK. If not, then countries like Holland are stuffed. There is some realy fascinating work that has been done. But so much more is needed.

It is easier to deamonise Muslims than work on problems that can realy change the world in most unpleasant ways. We could be in for some nasty shocks that could be ameliarated with prior knowledge

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