May 6, 2013

Today’s Big Idea: Predicting the Future

In today’s ever-changing and highly volatile world we have no shortage of predictions. What we do have is an accountability shortage.

bigthinkeditor

The most surprising and impactful new stories delivered to your inbox every week, for free.

In today’s ever-changing and highly volatile world we have no shortage of predictions. What we do have is an accountability shortage.

In today’s lesson, Big Think Chief Economist Daniel Altman holds himself accountable by comparing what he predicted a few years ago in his book Outrageous Fortunes to what we are experiencing today. As it turns out, Altman’s long-range predictions are looking pretty good. However, the ultimate significance of this, as Altman points out, is not just how good his prediction scorecard looks, but what kind of economic opportunities might exist across the globe.

Image courtesy of Shutterstock.

The most surprising and impactful new stories delivered to your inbox every week, for free.

A man with long curly hair sits on a chair in a white hallway, surrounded by illustrated documents, maps, and notes taped to a gray wall.

The hidden process of becoming a CIA agent, from a former spy

“The public really doesn’t realize that they are much closer to CIA spies than they think they are.”

▸

01:03:40 min

—

with

Andrew Bustamante

Starts With A Bang

Ask Ethan: Could our whole Universe be a black hole’s interior?

Once you cross a black hole’s event horizon, there’s no going back. But inside, could creating a singularity give birth to a new Universe?

Union soldiers in blue uniforms escort prisoners past a burning building with a large hole in the wall while smoke and flames rise, during the American Civil War.

Books

The rise and fall of John Wilkes Booth: America’s first celebrity assassin

Before becoming America’s most infamous assassin, John Wilkes Booth was a magnetic actor who was beloved by audiences and courted by critics.

A collage featuring an open book, a light source, and images of the moon captures post-AI wisdom, with the title "The Night Crawler" at the top.

Business

Creating wisdom infrastructure for the next 100 years

Welcome to The Nightcrawler — a weekly newsletter from Eric Markowitz covering tech, innovation, and long-term thinking.

A city skyline is reflected inside a single water droplet hanging from the tip of a metallic object against a gradient sky background.

The laboratory accident that saved 500 million lives

“Invention matters, but implementation matters more.”

▸

10 min

—

with

Derek Thompson

Up Next

Tracking My Own Predictions

Daniel Altman offered predictions for what the global economy would look like 10, 20, 40 years down the road. How did he do with these predictions and what does it mean for economic opportunity around the world?