Obama leads by 10pts in Polls including Cell Phones versus 5pts in Landline Only
Matthew C. Nisbet, Ph.D. is Associate Professor of Communication Studies, Public Policy, and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University. Nisbet studies the role of communication and advocacy in policymaking and public affairs, focusing on debates over over climate change, energy, and sustainability. Among awards and recognition, Nisbet has been a Visiting Shorenstein Fellow on Press, Politics, and Public Policy at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, a Health Policy Investigator at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and a Google Science Communication Fellow. In 2011, the editors at the journal Nature recommended Nisbet's research as “essential reading for anyone with a passing interest in the climate change debate,” and the New Republic highlighted his work as a “fascinating dissection of the shortcomings of climate activism."
Polls including cell-phones are highlighted in orange.
Wondering about the variation across survey organizations in estimating Obama's national lead? As I have been discussing in my research methods course here at AU, much of the variation is likely accounted for by differences in likely voter models but also in sampling differences that include either cell phones or landline phones only.
As Wired reports, over at the blog 538.com, Nate Silver shows that surveys that include cell phones average a 10pt lead for Obama, reflecting stronger support among younger voters and minorities. Among surveys that include only landline phones, Obama's lead averages only 5pts.
To read more about the impact of the profusion of polls on coverage of the election, see this short chapter on the topic that I recently published at the Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods.
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