Methods 101: Why the NH Polls Were Wrong
Jon Krosnick, a professor of Communication at Stanford and perhaps the top expert in survey methodology, hypothesizes that the pre-primary polls in New Hampshire might have been wrong because they failed to take into account the NH ballot design and the miserly nature of voters. In public opinion research, the tendency for miserly voters to choose the candidate listed first or closer to the top of the list of candidates is called the primacy effect:
A further potential source of error stems from New Hampshire ballot rules. In previous contests, the state rotated candidate names from precinct to precinct, but this year the names were in alphabetical order, with Clinton near the top and Obama lower down. Stanford Professor Jon Krosnick, a survey specialist and expert witness in a lawsuit about ballot order in New Hampshire, has estimated a three percentage point or greater bounce for a big name candidate appearing high on the ballot. Therefore, if pre-election polls randomized candidate names, as most do, they would have underestimated Clinton's support by at least three points.
Regardless, there were no immediate clear answers, and lots of data analysis ahead.
The findings are based on a phenomenon known as the "Mighty Girl Effect."
- The study tracked the responses of more than 5,000 men over the course of a decade.
- The results showed that men who lived with daughters were less likely to hold traditional views on gender relations and roles.
- This effect seemed to be strongest as the daughters entered secondary-school age.
There might be hope for our oceans, thanks to one clumsy moment in a coral tank.
- David Vaughan at the Mote Laboratory is growing coral 40 times faster than in the wild.
- It typically takes coral 25 to 75 years to reach sexual maturity. With a new coral fragmentation method, it takes just 3.
- Scientists and conservationists plan to plant 100,000 pieces of coral around the Florida Reef Tract by 2019 and millions more around the world in the years to come.
The billionaire entrepreneur predicts the rise of technology will soon force society to rethink the modern work week.
- Branson made the argument in a recent blog post published on the Virgin website.
- The 40-hour work week stems from labor laws created in the early 20th century, and many have said this model is becoming increasingly obsolete.
- The average American currently works 47 hours per week, on average.
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