There is not much in the way of analysis in this piece by Mareb Press, but I do completely disagree with the headline. I think al-Wahayshi's statement was, in fact, entirely expected. In typically vain fashion, I must say that I wrote about the prospect of things like this happening back in 2006 in what was, for me, a very comprehensive piece about Yemen. Unfortunately, the thing was never published by the London-based think tank for reasons that I still struggle to articulate here.

As we move forward, I think we will start to see different opposition groups - with little in common and no concrete links to each other - find common cause against the government.

Also, al-Qaeda has already attempted to tap into popular resistance in Sada al-Malahim, complaining about southern soldiers being utilized against the al-Huthi supporters by a regime that doesn't view them as full citizens as well as complaining about the government's poor response to the October flooding in al-Mahra.

Finally, while I don't have time to parse the speech (technically I'm on a rather tight deadline) I will say that for those of you who would like to listen to the rather short speech and are wary of logging on to jihadi forums from your work computer, you can know listen to it on the ostensibly less suspicious Mareb Press, although that version comes without the accompanying text.

Update: Most of the coverage of al-Wahayshi's speech is stressing that he is supporting the Southern Movement. Personally, I think this has the stress going the wrong way, and is not the way I read the speech. I read the speech as al-Wahayshi being aligned against the government not necessarily in support of southern independence, notice his talk of justice not coming except under the umbrella of Islam and the fact that there should be no divisions.