Question: Of all the governments you’ve advised on energy
policy, which have been the most and least reasonable?
Charles Ebinger: Oh, I'd like to tell you that I could claim
success on more than one hand out of 50 governments. I would say in the
long run we probably made some great success in Jordan and Egypt and
ironically, even in Pakistan in the energy sector. Things have fallen
apart since then. The problem though I think is most interesting to
say, well why don't governments listen to what even most officials would
say was fundamentally sound advice. The problem is in many of these
countries you know, because of the large volumes of poor people energy
prices are highly subsidized, in some cases free. And still in large
parts of India, the farmers pay nothing for electricity. And so of
course because there's no value on the good, demand shoots through the
roof and then the Indian government can't build enough generation
capacity so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
really the political constraints these countries are under, are very,
very serious. And it's easy for the IMF or the World Bank to come in
and say "Oh, you need to rationalize prices and you know get them up to
the real cost," but you know we don't, as we were talking earlier, we
don't have our prices reflecting the cost of carbon. And so in some
ways, we're not that different. So I think that's the biggest thing.
They don't see any near-term benefit by making some of these tough
reforms even though they recognize that they're on a collision course if
they don't do these things. So they do them at the margin, try to keep
the system intact.
But sadly in a place like Pakistan today, you know most of the major
cities have electricity shortages 16, 18 hours a day. And that's true
in many large cities in India or around the world. In the big cities
electricity is you know often only available 3 or 4 hours a day, if at
all. And of course as we mentioned at the start of our talk, there's
still huge numbers of people that have no access to electricity at all.
So these are the real dilemmas, so it's easy to talk about
Western-style reforms, creating regulatory regimes for transparency and
all this, but in the final analysis, governments generally don't embark
on policies that may well mean their political demise sooner rather than
Recorded on April 28th, 2010
Interviewed by Austin Allen