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David Dollar: I honestly think that it's very hard to say. Economics is easier to predict than politics in my view. So if you look at all of the advanced capitalist countries, I would argue that their economic systems are pretty similar. There are some differences, but these are fundamentally systems based on private property rights and free trade. They all belong to the World Trade Organization. On the other hand if you look at the political systems of the advanced capitalist countries, I would say they are enormously different. You've got presidential systems. You've got parliamentary systems. You have different types of presidential and parliamentary systems. So the evidence to me is that there are quite a few different democratic political systems that are consistent with being a wealthy country. And therefore I think it's very hard to predict what path of political change China will go down over the next 20 years or so.

Recorded on: 7/3/07

 

 

China's Political Future

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