Thursday’s Big Idea
Linear Change
The best way to predict the future, X Prize founder Peter Diamandis is fond of saying, is to invent it yourself. The second best way to predict the future is to become an expert at recognizing patterns. People like Warren Buffett are really good at that.
But there are two types of patterns that can be used to predict the future. One is cyclical. You know that spring will follow winter, for instance. Another kind of change is linear. This refers to the type of change that is certain, given clearly visible evidence.
We know, for instance, how computing power will increase because we have been tracking it for decades. Therefore, that enables us to see how this type of change will impact multiple different industries. Above all, finding certainty in an uncertain world has enormous value because when we consider the alternative -- uncertainty, which is fraught with risk -- one tends to be inactive, if not fully paralyzed, rather than opportunistic.
