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Predicting the Winners and Losers of the Future

July 28, 2013, 2:00 PM
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Those who have projected job loss due to outsourcing and the world economy didn’t even take into account automation and the impact that would have not only on western economies, but also on emerging markets.  So you obviously have to have a cross-disciplinary approach.  One of the things we point out in the book is to kind of fault economic forecasters for not taking into account technology disruptions sufficiently.  

Scenarios are obviously a very important part of it - working backwards to see how you would get somewhere and whether the ingredients are present.  Analytics and big data are a huge part of this now.  We talk in the book about various efforts to integrate predictive analytic databases that exist today and actually merge them together into kind of a super-meta set of data that can act as a predictive analytic power. 

And if that can actually make important predictions about the future, then we can retroactively or prescriptively change our policies. There’s quite a few techniques, more than before, obviously, that we have in our arsenal to make better predictions about the future.  And then, most importantly, we have to do something about it.  

In Their Own Words is recorded in Big Think's studio.

Image courtesy of Shutterstock

 

Predicting the Winners and ...

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