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Using a simple data matrix, uberpollster Nate Silver has predicted in what order gay marriage will be permitted on a state-by-state basis.

Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight Politics analyzed each state's record of gay marriage bans, religiosity according to a 2008 Gallup survey, and number of evangelical residents to determine how long it would be before gay marriage was legalized. The results were not as predictable as you might think.

Noting the steady decline in religious conviction alone, Proposition 8 could mark one of the last wholesale gay marriage bans to ever be amended to a state's constitution. Of course, legalization is wholly dependent on the sociopolitical climate. If evangelicals see a renaissance, gay marriage proponents could see their prospects dwindle.

The rankings of the states by year they will likely reject marriage bans:

2009 (now)
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Nevada
Washington
Alaska
New York
Oregon*

2010
California
Hawaii
Montana
New Jersey
Colorado

2011
Wyoming
Delaware
Idaho
Arizona

2012
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Illinois

2013
Michigan
Minnesota
Iowa
Ohio
Utah
Florida

2014
New Mexico
North Dakota
Nebraska
South Dakota

2015
Indiana
Virginia
West Virginia
Kansas

2016
Missouri

2018
Texas

2019
North Carolina
Louisiana
Georgia

2020
Kentucky

2021
South Carolina
Oklahoma

2022
Tennessee
Arkansas

2023
Alabama

2024
Mississippi

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