What's the Latest Development?
A few months ago pessimists predicted an imminent double-dip recession in the U.S. but instead the economy and stimulus renewal measures are making headway and the recent run of good economic data suggests the economy is growing at around a 2.5% rate, fast enough to create jobs for a growing population, but not fast enough to reduce unemployment.
What's the Big Idea?
A stronger recovery probably would have started this year but for a run of bad luck: a post-Arab spring rise in oil prices, disruptions to global supply chains caused by Japan’s earthquake, and Europe's deepening debt crisis. With the euro zone probably already in recession, America will struggle to keep up its modest growth next year. It could yet turn out that those forecasts of a seasonal recession were premature, not wrong.