There Is A Greater Possibility of Coup d’e tat in Pakistan
First it is an academic article only, at which I tried to use the Physic’s Chaotic theory, modern conditioning theory of human behavior and David X. Li’s mathematic model to predict the chance of Coup d’e tat in Pakistan.
1. Pakistan is always in change and unstable pattern, which fits the Physic’s chaotic theory. However, the change and unstable situation always in resulting of Military Coup d’e tat. (Readers review the history of Pakistan please).
2. The history unstable political situation conditioning a kind of Coup d’e tat behavior existed in military and political circle.
3. David X, Li’s mathematic model and article “On Default Correlation: a Copula Function Approach”, which published in The Journal Of Fix Income in 2000yr. Readers can modify Li’s model and apply to “Coup d’e tat” Correlation. Or simply use the statistic regression model to calculate the correlation of military and coup d’e tat in Pakistan.
My research hints that based on chaotic theory applied to Pakistan ,Coup d’e tat is one of the pattern, it just does not know when will be happened.
Human behavior conditioning model to illuminate the facts that Coup d’e tat behavior in military may become a trend. The worst is that the international environment accepts this kind of action in Pakistan.
Modify David X, Li model and statistic regression hint that the correlation of military and Coup d’e tat in Pakistan is very high.
Conclusion: There is a greater possibility of Coup d’e ta in Pakistan, if the tensions grow higher, the chance would be greater and sooner.
*Warning: It is only an academic guess, which was the first time to use the above- said three models to predict Coup d’e tat !