Propaganda as truth, assertion as reason, ideology as science are very popular in this country now!
First let us review some innocent blunder in the field of Philosophy. After Ludwig Wittgenstein published his lone Tractatus, he assumed only a few can understand it and he arrogantly went further to say that he had solved all the problems of philosophy. Soberly he retreated back to Austria as a primary school teacher and enjoyed his breakthrough in philosophy. He failed as primary school teacher and then later find a job as a gardener assistant near Vienna. After thoughtfully review his Tractatus and expend his knowledge, he admitted that there were mistakes in his philosophy. Now you do not have to be a philosopher, you should know that Russell and Wittgenstein’s Analytical Philosophy just one school of philosophy! No one dare claim to solve all the problem of philosophy anymore. Period.
When the first-rated and most admired Sino-Chinese expert and Harvard scholar John K. Fairbank saw Mao who started his cultural revolution in China in the era of 1960. Prof. Fairbank romantically and really believes that Mao’s main purpose is to purge the old culture in China. Now you do not have to be Prof. Fukuyama, you should know that Mao just maneuvered the Red Guards and manipulated the Cultural Revolution in order to keep his place in Communist Party. And of course, his aim was to purge his opponents in his Party. Chinese Culture just his excuse. What a tragically and lifetime mistake! Prof. Fairbank! Period.
When the hungry, thirsty Karl Marx set in the library of London for several years. Without any data, experiment, figure only through observation. Suddenly Eureka! He imagined his Communist manifesto could save this world! The worst, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Even now Hu Jintao of China, “Stalin” Kim of North Korea, Castro and his brother Raul of Cuba, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela still believe Karl Marx! You do not have to be Einstein; Communist manifesto is not science, most of the idea just pure romantic imagination! How can it saved this very complicated world?
Now return to Francis Fukuyama (FF)’s The End of History and his latest writing They can only go so far in Aug 24, 2008 Washington Post. His main frame still his words “liberal democracy had conclusively triumphed “ communism and authoritarianism. And he named so many countries and names, e.g., Pakistan and Pervez Musharraf, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe; Venezuela, Hugo Chavez; Hu Jintao and China; Putin and Russia; Iran and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Park Chung-hee and South Korea, Meiji and Japan; Lee Kwan yew and Singapore; Zaire and Mobutu Sere Seko; Sierra Leone and Foday Sankoh; Liberia and Charles Taylor and Rulers of Nigerian; Africa, Latin America, Mid –east…, in his They can only go so far!
I assume he should have several research assistants to find reference for him if he needed. I doubt how much he understands the aforesaid countries and their political systems, and the past or present rulers. Again, political science and history are not really science!
The Juggernauts like Wittgenstein, Fairbank and Karl Marx, they all had made a lifetime mistakes. After the end of break down of Soviet Union and ended the cold war. FF asserted the end of communism and the prevalence of liberal idea. He failed to point out Russia and Communist China can evolve to Authoritarianism countries and flourish in economy and military. Those all may threaten the national interest of West and America. FF bad timing and too early predict the end of Communism and his limit knowledge to know how the broken communist countries like Russia and China reconstruct and evolve to Authoritarian countries and flourish. That huge arrogant intellecttual prediction (not science!!) beckons the neocons Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld, Robert Kegan and FF came together mistakenly to assume the mighty America could be Roman Empire. Thus under the paper-valued liberal democracy and WMD excuse, we invade Iraq, humiliate the Russia and want to manipulate Putin. We pay the price! And now Russia invaded Georgia! China took advantage of Olympics. We got 9 trillion deficit and the humiliate post and weak America era!
FF’s fallacy is to simplify the complicated world and diversified political systems that governed the world . The worst, he uses the pseudo-science and non-science tools, e.g. most of them non-scientific reference to make an assertion to assert the other different countries which have the different condition , history background, education system , culture, as America will come to the same result.
FF’s book or writing still concentrates on the ideological direction to assume the communism ended and autocrat countries can not go so far!
For a philosophical point of view , long time ago, in 1945 Philosopher Karl Popper already presented a very clear point in his “Open Society and its Enemies,” the Communism would not work and would be faded in history. Just ask his student , Philosopher turned speculator, George Soros. He’ll tell you all. So, FF’s prediction the liberal idea will triumphed communism in his 1989 “The End of History”, is meaningless. The great tragedy is that before we applied the Communism on human being. We believe, including a lot of scholars, Karl Marx’s imagination product: Communist manifesto would work! Until the catastrophe in terms of millions human life die and economics systems destroyed happened in Soviet Union, and Mao’s China. You do not need to listen to Mikhail Gorbachev to tell you: Communism is the great tragedy of human experiment. You know one day, Communism will be ended in Soviet Union or in China.
Now comes the Timing, FF is dead wrong, until Aug 24, 2008 Washington Post’s writing, Communism is existed in this world. The evolved communist turns autocrat like China, Russia and old Authoritarian countries, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Singapore are flourished!
It is very dangerous at the wrong timing to predict Autocrat will be end soon and “they only go so far”. Just like FF in 1989 mistakenly predicted Communism ended in history. So, let the neocons including FF have a false context or hallucination and the wrong timing to humiliate the post-communism Russia as well as they want to contain the Red China and build up a Roman Empire under Bush’s administration! Again, after 911, neocons beautifully mistaken again, with the Communism die, no country can challenge America. So, we invaded Iraq. We pay a great price. Now everyone knows, the evolved communist turned Autocratic China, and Russia can challenge America in so many ways! The latest, Kremlin declared to recognize the independence of two separatist Georgian regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia!
The wrong research tools, simplification about politics, and wrong timing contribute the fallacy of Francis Fukuyama. Pity! History, political science and ideology are not science! Pity! FF wants to make a scientific prediction: They can only go so far! Wrong timing prediction again!
Note: My personal humble educated guess (.95 significance!) If Communist China and Russia evolve further to a Singaporean living standard and political model, an acceptable (at least most its citizen) Authoritarian country. I do not think the American democratic model will prevail in Russia or China in the coming 50 yr or more. Prof. FF you want to bet?