I wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous new year. Some thoughts…
We are not facing a crisis of capitalism; we are looking towards a new, cleaner, fairer capitalism! It will not impair the successful but will, once again, enable the Americandream; hard work and attention to the job at hand can lead to success. The people are demanding and will demand this opportunity. No force will stop it!
2012 will bring:
Pump priming in the early months motivated by Obama’s will to win an election. The pump will not be primed sufficiently to turn the economy yet as the resistance to changeis still powerful, though waning.
The modest prime will release real inflation with no, or little, growth — “Stagflation.” Interest rates will climb to the inflation rate which may reach 6-8% by year end. Though government will wish to control interest rates, the risk of massive inflation will inhibit the probability of success.
There will certainly be Sovereign and banking defaults in 2012, all of which will aid in the cleansing of the world economic cloud and provide part of the foundation for future economic growth and a changed (for the better) brand of capitalism.
We face a year of more transition, a changed economic world, some pain but, ultimately, a world emerging from the black clouds of Recession.
Here is a recent interview I did with Chuck Willbanks for The Deal.